For every Michigan voter, three sat out the primaries

Where have all the voters gone?

Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land announced that nearly 1.7 million voters cast ballots in Tuesday’s primary, based on unofficial returns.

“I would like to thank everyone who took the time to cast a ballot,” said Land, Michigan’s chief election officer. “Turnout mirrored our projection of nearly 1.7 million registered voters casting ballots. I expect many more voters to cast ballots in the Nov. 2 general election and my department will continue to encourage residents to register and then vote.”

Tuesday’s turnout reflects 22.9 percent of Michigan’s 7.2 million registered voters. An analysis of county level turnout[1] (no city results are available yet) found it ranged from a high of 41.8 percent in Leelanau County to a low of 10.8 percent in Menominee County.

Among counties in the Detroit metropolitan area, Oakland County led the pack at 26.5 percent, followed by Livingston (26.0%), Lapeer (25.4%) and St. Clair (24.8%).  Macomb and Washtenaw were the only others to surpass 20 percent.  At the bottom of the pack were Wayne (18.0%), Monroe (18.0%), Lenawee (18.5%) and Genesee (18.6%).

While we do not have ‘official” results from Detroit as of yet, the forecast prior to the election was for a 12-15 percent turnout.  All indications are that the forecast was “on the money.”

The statewide results represent the highest turnout for a primary since 2002’s 23.3 percent, and the third highest since 1978. But that’s nothing to brag about. Because so many districts have been gerrymandered to be dominated by one party, primaries often determine the outcome of the general elections. That means that less than a quarter of the voting public (and many times less than that) are deciding who gets elected throughout Michigan.

This is a VERY SAD commentary on the voting process.  Whether voting is considered a civic duty or a privilege of citizenship, Americans continue to FAIL THE TEST.

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[1] Turnout totals were calculated using 2009 Census estimates of county populations 18 years and over.  While the author realizes that not all persons 18 years and over are eligible to vote – particularly non-citizens – and that a small percentage does not register, these figures represent the best estimates possible at the current time.

2009 MEAP: Public school reading scores outshine the charters

It has been said that a child learns to read up until third grade, after which he/she reads to learn. The ability to read at an early age is critical for academic success across all subjects in the years to come.

The State of Michigan recently released results from the Fall 2009 MEAP.  Table 1 presents a summary of the third grade reading results (the earliest grade tested) for the Detroit Area – Macomb, Oakland and Wayne Counties.  The results are tabulated across districts and presented as county totals.  The City of Detroit district is pulled out separately from Wayne County, and the remaining Wayne County districts are summarized.  In addition, public school districts have been tabulated separately from charter schools.

Table 1 presents results over the last five years so that trends can be readily identified.  Among the findings:

• The results were clear – all districts, both public and charter, experienced improvements in the percent of children reading at grade level over the last year. The percent of children not meeting standards dropped from 13.6% to 10.2% across the State of Michigan.  Those meeting standards increased from 86.4% to 89.8%.
• Macomb Public Schools, after two years of decreases, experienced an increase in the percentage of children meeting standards from 88.5% to 91.6%. For the first time, less than 1,000 third grade students could not read at grade level.
• Oakland Public Schools’ 2008-09 improvement was extended, and increased. The share of students testing at grade level grew from 91.2% to 93.6%. As was the case with Macomb, this was the first time that less than 1,000 third grade students could not read at grade level.
• Detroit Public School students showed the greatest improvement. By the 2008-09 school year, the percent of Detroit students that were reading at a third grade level had fallen from a high of 75.5% to 71.7%.  But in the 2009-10 school year, Detroit students rallied to 79.1 %, representing a 10.3 percent improvement.
• Out-Wayne County Public Schools also showed improvement after two successive years of losses. The Fall 2009 tests showed a grade level reading rate of 90.0 percent.  This was up from 86.0% in Fall 2008.
• The percent of tri-county public school students reading at a third-grade level increased from 85.8% to 89.8%.
• Charter schools continued to have significantly lower rates of students meeting reading standards than their public school counterparts (though DPS is still slightly lower than each of the county charter averages).
• Macomb charter schools produced a grade level reading rate of 80.0%, a marked increase from 76.2% in Fall 2008.
• Oakland Charter schools showed similar, though slightly less, improvement than did Macomb. Student grade level reading in Fall 2009 was 79.7%, up from 76.6% in Fall 2008.
• Wayne County charters (charters located in the City of Detroit were not pulled out separately) showed the largest improvement across the tri-county, as the grade level reading rate increased from 76.25 to 81.0 %.

 

A second trend that the data reveal is the decreasing public school population of 3^rd graders[1]^,[2] resulting from a combination of out-migration and decreasing births.  The number of 3^rd graders tested statewide (including both public and charter) decreased by 2,216, or 1.9 percent.  Macomb lost 314 3^rd grade students (3.2%) between 2008 and 2009 (when public and charter enrollments are combined), while Oakland lost 106 students (0.8%).  Both experienced decreases in public enrollment (3.6% and 0.8%, respectively), with very small changes in charter enrollment.

The number of Detroit Public School third graders taking the test has fallen by 2,142, or 23.7 percent, between Fall 2005 and Fall 2008.  Much has been written about decreasing enrollment in the district overall.  Such large decreases in the early grades provide strong evidence to support the general enrollment forecasts of a district that will drop to about 50,000 by 2015[3].

Table 1.  3rd Grade Reading MEAP Results

 

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[1] The numbers also reveal a movement from public to charter schools, as the population of charter school students increased significantly in Wayne, slightly in Oakland, and held steady in Macomb.

[2] The assumption must be made that the numbers are not affected by an increasing number of parents opting out of having their children tested.

[3] The City of Detroit is adding children through births, at a rate that has been dropping since 1990.  The forecast for attracting families with young children to the City in the near future is not there.  As a result, increased enrollment will only come through an increasing market share – attracting a higher percentage of current residents at each grade level.