Hey, Baby, what’s happening?

When I was in Eastern Market over the Memorial Day weekend, it seemed like there were babies everywhere. But statistics show that fewer Michiganders are having children.  

The State of Michigan has just released 2008 data and the trend of decreasing births that began after 1990 is continuing. 

“Figure 1” shows Michigan’s birth numbers from 1990 to 2008.  Births peaked in 1990 at 153,080, the highest seen since the early 1970s. Between 1990 and 2008, births decreased 21 percent ( 11 percent since 2000).  Such a trend, combined with the continued net out-migration of the population, creates a double whammy for a state that is clamoring to retain its talent and its tax base.

Figure 1.  Michigan Births, 1990 – 2008

 

 

 

 

A recent release from the National Center for Health Statistics showed that Michigan had one of the lowest birth rates in the country – only the New England states, Pennsylvania and West Virginia had lower rates.

The decrease in births has been mirrored in Southeast Michigan.  While there is great variation across communities – many of which have seen their birth numbers grow—Wayne County and City of Detroit have trended downward.

Macomb County, which has seen continued in-migration and growth since 1990, experienced the smallest loss among Macomb County, Oakland County, out-Wayne County and Detroit – 7.6 percent since 1990; 6.1 percent since 2000.

Procreators in Oakland County have really been hit hard by the economic downturn.  Oakland County’s births dropped only 4 percent during the 1990′s. But since 2000, it has dropped 14.8 percent.  

Out-Wayne County’s drop has been less severe than that of Oakland County – most likely due to the increasing population of younger residents in growing communities such as Brownstown, Canton, Northville and Plymouth townships.   The drop in out-Wayne County’s births has been 15.4 percent since 1990 and 8.1 percent since 2000.

Figure 2.  Births in the Tri-County Area, 1990 – 2008

The drop in Detroit’s birth rate is largely due to population loss. The first time that Detroit’s births have fallen below the 12,000 mark reached in the early 20^th Century was in 2008 (11,774). That was less than half of the 1990 total of 24,129.  The loss since 2000 has been 26 percent.

What does decreasing births mean for the State and the region?  How does it affect school districts, tax revenue, business development, etc.?  We welcome your input.

Michigan Population Stats: We would have lost more, but there was nowhere to run

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE 2009 STATE POPULATION RELEASE BY THE CENSUS BUREAU

The Census Bureau released new population estimates this morning. Here is my analysis of what it means for Michigan.

 

 

 

 

• Michigan loses population between 2008 and 2009 for 4th straight year – second largest amount (32,759) since 2007-08 (48,361)
• Michigan’s loss was greatest of all states.  Only Maine and Rhode island also lost population.
• Michigan falls below 10 million for first time since 2001, but remains just above the 2000 census total.
• Michigan’s share of the nation’s population has dropped from 3.5% to 3.2% over the decade
• Births in Michigan are at their lowest number since the beginning of the baby boom in 1946.
• Deaths have remained high throughout the decade and will increase over time due to the aging population.
• The birth-death combination has resulted in a continued decrease in population growth.
• Immigration estimates stayed relatively low, due to reduced U.S. immigration.  The overall reduction is a result of increasing restrictions since 2001, but even more so in recent years, the poor economy and prospect of fewer jobs.
• Domestic out-migration (87,339) was second highest of the decade (second only to 2007-08′s 103,637).  The out-migration this year could have been the highest in the decade but for the crash of the housing market and increasing unemployment in the rest of the country, making job moves less available.
• Michigan’s domestic out-migration (2008-09) total ranked third behind California and New York.  23 states experienced domestic out-migration.
• 28 states experienced domestic in-migration (2008-09), with Texas (143,423) leading all others – followed by North Carolina (59,108), Washington State (38,201), Colorado (35,591), and South Carolina (31,480).
• 9 states, led by Michigan, Ohio, New York, Illinois and Mississippi experienced Net Out-migration.  Michigan’s loss of 71,893 residents far outnumbered Ohio’s 24,443.
• Michigan ranked 43rd in Birth Rate for 2008-09.  Number 1 was Utah (no surprise – consistent #1), while Vermont came in last.
• Michigan ranked 22nd in its Death Rate for 2008-09.  Number 1 was West Virginia, while Alaska had the lowest death rate.
• Michigan ranked 28th in its Immigration Rate for 2008-09.  Number 1 was Florida, while West Virginia came in last place.
• Michigan was at the bottom of the list for Domestic Migration between 2008 and 2009, followed by Rhode Island and New York.  Wyoming, the District of Columbia and Colorado ranked 1 through 3.