The Census Bureau released its newest compilation of 2010 Census data for Michigan on March 8.  This file allows us to understand the demographics of the growing racial and ethnic groups across our State and in our neighborhoods.  While Data Driven Detroit will begin to produce a series of Detailed Race/Ethnic profiles, I decided to take a quick look at how these new numbers better help us understand how these groups differ in their age distributions.

When we look at the share that persons of color (anyone who is not white, nonHispanic) represent by age, we see a gradual increase as age decreases.  While accounting for only 14 percent of the population 65 years and over,  the figure below shows a 34 percent share in the youngest cohort, less than 5 years of age.  Overall, persons of color represent 23.4 percent of Michigan’s population.

In order to better understand the age distributions within specific race and ethnic groups, I first ranked all the groups by the percentage of their populations that were below 18 years of age (children).  Rapidly growing countries have populations that are young, with heavy concentrations of population in their child-bearing years and large numbers of children.  Among the groups where children accounted for at least a third of their populations were Guatemalans, Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Hmong, Bolivians, Bangladeshi, and Pakistanis.  African Americans came in at 27.9 percent and white, nonHispanics trailed all but Japanese, Taiwanese, Indonesians and Thai with 21.3 percent.

The best way to understand the gender and age structure of a country or particular race/ethnic group is to look at its population pyramid.  The pyramid represents population share for each 5 year age cohort for both genders.  Below you have two very different pyramids.  The first is for Michigan’s white, nonHispanics, while the second is for Michigan’s Mexicans.

The shape of the first is far from that of a pyramid.  Rather, it is beginning to approach the shape of a rectangle.  The bulge in the middle represents the large baby boom generation.  The bulge somewhat lower is the baby boomlet, a period when the large baby boom cohort was having children.  The bars below the 15-19 year cohort continue to get smaller as births have continued to decrease.  The population less than 10 years of age represents only 11.9 percent of the white, nonHispanic population.  The cohort 65 years and over now accounts for 13.4 percent of the total – a share that will continue to grow as 20 years of baby boomers began reaching these ranks in 2011.

The second portrays the age and gender distribution of the Mexican population.  In this case we see the true pyramid structure, with the largest population cohorts in the youngest ages, and a decreasing share with increasing age.  This is what the total population of Michigan looked like in the heart of the baby boom years in the early 1950s.

Children less than 10 years of age account for almost one of every four Mexicans in Michigan (24.3%), while those 65 years and over account for just 4.1 percent.

It is clear that Michigan is becoming more and more diverse with every day.  The Governor’s recent call to make Michigan the most immigrant-friendly state in the country will help to move the needle as well.

As the older white, nonHispanic population ages, it will be the younger, African American,  Asian, Latino, Middle Eastern and other ethnic groups that will help drive Michigan’s future.  Their presence is now and will be in the future a true asset for our State.

In spite of all the years of zoo attendance, I must admit that, though I found them fascinating creatures to look at, I never felt a particular fondness for the Rhinoceros. I can usually see adults and children crowding to see the great apes, the lions and tigers, the giraffes and elephants, but rarely do they spend much time with the Rhinos.

That changed when my wife and I had the opportunity to go behind the scenes and meet Judy Stephens.  Judy lives and breathes Rhinos.  Not only was she kind enough to allow us to meet her 2 male charges, but she worked with them in such a way that they felt comfortable enough to allow our touch (as you can see above in the pictures Judy volunteered to take).  We stood transfixed as she told us her history with both black and white Rhinos and the differences between the two in child rearing and other behaviors. She shared stories and pictures that brought laughs and tears.  I guarantee that every one of our visits to the ZOO from now on will entail our hurrying straight to the back to see what the boys are up to.

I want to end this posting with a request.  Rhinos are subject to foot problems, usually exacerbated by the cement floors that exist in their indoor quarters.  Some zoos have been able to create mudrooms that can help to reduce such problems.  Judy Stephens has created a design for such a room that could be constructed just outside the Rhino’s indoor quarters.  She needs a professional to convert this design into a formal architectural plan and then we need to raise the funds to make it happen.  I know that our community has many caring individuals with a broad range of expertise.  If anyone out there is ready for such a task, or you know anyone who would be interested, please have them contact me.  I guarantee that one meeting with Judy and her rhinos will have you hooked!

Figure 1 shows the total births in the State from 1990 to 2010.

Figure 1.  Total Births in Michigan by Year, 1990 – 2010

Total births fell in almost all urban counties in the State.  Saginaw experienced the largest year to year loss at 5.4 percent and was followed by Muskegon (-4.9%), Kent (-3.4%), Calhoun (-3.3%), Genesee (-3.0%), Oakland (-2.2%), Macomb (-2.0%), Wayne (-1.8%) and Ingham (-0.4%).  Four metropolitan core counties bucked the trend by experiencing no change or birth increases.  These were Berrien (0.0%), Washtenaw (1.0%), Jackson (1.7%) and Kalamazoo (1.7%).  The later might indeed be a result of the Kalamazoo Promise.  When one looks at 3-year averages, all the counties experienced an actual drop between the 2007-09 and 2008-10 periods.

Figure 2 provides a view of births in the tri-county area over the last 20 years.

 Figure 2.  Total Births in Macomb, Oakland, Out-Wayne and Detroit by Year, 1990 – 2010

While all four areas show a decreasing trend over the period, particularly since the middle of the last decade, the degree of loss differs a great deal.  Comparing 3-year averages for the periods 1990-92 and 2008-10, we find the following:

Macomb County        -8.2%

Oakland County        -19.1%

Out-Wayne County    -16.7%

Detroit City             -50.9%

Macomb County has experienced the smallest decrease, but a decrease nonetheless, in spite of its large overall population increase over the last two decades.  Oakland County experienced almost no growth over the last decade, due to outmigration and a significant drop in births.  Out-Wayne County’s drop has not been as great as Oakland’s, due to a younger population overall, due in great part to immigration, and growth in the western and southern suburbs.  And finally there is Detroit which has seen its birth totals drop by half as many young families left the city and the birth rate decreased.

Birth trends are an important component of population change for any geographic area.  When births are decreasing there is little chance that the overall population will be growing. In addition, school systems cannot afford to maintain their infrastructure in light of decreasing enrollment on the horizon.

We can take some solace in the fact that the 2009-10 decrease was somewhat less than the two prior years.  If recent economic trends continue their positive movement; if the Governor’s efforts to attract immigrants begins to show success; and if our metropolitan regions can begin to develop shared visions that emphasize strong central cities, Michigan will begin to attract the young, educated workforce that will both reinvent Michigan and begin to lay down roots that will result in a birth rebound.

You can join together with leaders who share your passion and dedication for a healthy, stable Detroit.

The night will be historic. It is the kick off of a one month sprint to unlock 10,000 new volunteer hours in Detroit.

You will meet new people, get new tools and find new ways to make a difference.

But how can you have such a great opportunity without having to endure some data before you start?  Well, that is where yours truly comes in.  I have been asked to be one of the kickoff speakers and fill you with some numbers, some things to think about, and, hopefully, a little more motivation to be a  change agent in Detroit.

While I am not going to give away everything that I plan to cover, I would like to throw out some stats related to Volunteering in the Detroit metropolitan area.  Since everyone loves rankings, I thought I would give you some idea where Detroit ranks among the Top 51 metros (population based) in the country.  This ranking is based on age of the volunteers.

Older Adults (Before 1946)            37th

Baby Boomers (1946-1964)           33rd

Gen X (1964-1982)                      26th

Millenials (1982-2000)                 38th

Young Adult (1984-1996)              33rd

Overall                                       32nd

It is obvious that we, as a region, have a long way to go before we can hit the Top 10 on any category.  It is clear that the factors that tend to lower volunteering:  Foreclosure rate; poverty rate; unemployment rate; and homeownership, all traveled in the wrong direction over the last 5 years.  In addition, the Detroit region ranks quite low in the percentage of college graduates – another indicator tied to volunteerism.

While we may not be able to reverse all the factors overnight, we are beginning to see positive signs.  The important point is that these factors do not doom us to a ranking in the bottom half of the list.  The ability to rise in the rankings is in our hands!  Let us use this event as the beginning of our climb to the TOP!

I read an article the other day that made me think of the Woody Allen movie Sleeper.  In the movie, Woody has been cryogenically frozen and is thawed out many years later.  Among the many consequences of this time warp is that he discovers scientists have changed their views on the dangers of many products he had been told to stay away from, or use in extreme moderation, in his former life.  The following is a brief excerpt:

Dr. Melik: This morning for breakfast he requested something called “wheat germ, organic honey and tiger’s milk.”
Dr. Aragon: [chuckling] Oh, yes. Those are the charmed substances that some years ago were thought to contain life-preserving properties.
Dr. Melik: You mean there was no deep fat? No steak or cream pies or… hot fudge?
Dr. Aragon: Those were thought to be unhealthy… precisely the opposite of what we now know to be true.
Dr. Melik: Incredible.

Well, the article I refer to has to do with coffee – or as I refer to it “the Elixir of the Gods.”  The first thing I do each morning is get that cup of coffee.  I used to have a coffee pot timed to be ready by 5:30 am and I would not get out of bed, no matter how early I awoke, until I knew that pot was ready.  We have now moved on to a one-cupper machine which means that I have to turn it on, wait for it to warm up, and that wait for the cup to be ready.  This is often an extremely stressful event.  The cups continue to be poured throughout the day – usually stopping by 4:00 or so. People warned me about my coffee “habit” but I held fast.

You can understand my excitement when I read in the Harvard Medical School’s HEALTHbeat newsletter:

“Remember when people (and their doctors) used to worry that coffee would harm their hearts, give them ulcers, and make them overly nervous? In excess, coffee, and more particularly, caffeine, can cause problems. But the fretting about two or three cups a day, or even more, is fading as study results suggestive of health benefits from coffee keep on coming in. Coffee drinking is associated with a lower risk of depression among women, a lower risk of lethal prostate cancer among men, and a lower risk of stroke among men and women. Earlier research also shows possible (it’s not a done deal) protective effects against everything from Parkinson’s disease to diabetes to some types of cancer.

Coffee contains literally a thousand different substances, and some of the lesser lights are thought to be responsible for healthful effects in other parts of the body. Some studies show caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee as having the same effect, which suggests that something else in coffee is involved.

Caffeine probably has multiple targets in the brain, but the main one seems to be adenosine receptors. Adenosine is a brain chemical that dampens brain activity. By hogging adenosine’s receptors, caffeine sets off a chain of events that affects the activity of dopamine, another important brain chemical, and the areas of the brain involved in arousal, pleasure, and thinking. Outside the brain, caffeine can be a performance enhancer, boosting the strength of muscle contraction and offsetting some of the physiological and psychological effects of physical exertion.”

Statistics show that per capita consumption of coffee has decreased from 26.7 gallons in 1980 to 23.3 gallons in 2009 (latest available), even while coffee shops continue to proliferate.

I admit that I have removed the negative effects mentioned in the article so that my wife and D3 staff stop giving me a hard time.  Let’s stick with the brain arousal and muscle strengthening.  I need all the help I can get.

While developing the plan I came across a rather disturbing, though not surprising, finding in a study commissioned by the AARP, originally standing for the American Association of Retired People, but just AARP now – probably because membership invitations seem to get sent out to those younger and younger each year.  The move to letters, with no words attached, puts AARP in league with KFC.

I digress.  The survey was done by MoneyRates.com, a site that provides rates galore – savings accounts, credit cards, mortgages, and much more.  While the AARP recognizes that many highly personal factors come into play when it’s time to pick the perfect place to retire, they wanted to “add some objectivity to what’s otherwise a very individualized life choice.”  Therefore they had  the finance website looked at a number of factors, including climate, crime rate, life expectancy and economic conditions such as cost of living, job opportunities and taxes, to come up with their state rankings.  The interesting thing is that MoneyRates.com weighted each factor according to a poll that asked readers to rate its importance in the context of retirement. Based on their responses, the following weights were applied – economics (47 percent), climate (33 percent), life expectancy (12 percent) and crime (8 percent).

Well, with those measures as the base, it is not difficult to predict where Michigan might fall in the rankings.  Last you say?  Well…not quite.  We came in second last to Maine!  Let me give you the Bottom 10 in the list, and provide their account of Michigan.  After Maine and Michigan we have:

Massachusetts

Connecticut

Alaska

Maryland

Rhode Island

Washington

New York

Wisconsin

Interesting that there isn’t a great deal of winter warmth here, nor is any on this list a right-to-work state.

As for the comments on Michigan:  ” Michigan duplicated its ranking from last year as the second-worst state for retirement. Because it was similarly below average in all four categories, the reader weightings did not make much of a difference. Unemployment is high, and tax burdens are also above average. Michigan rated well below median for its climate. At 76.3 years, this was another below-average factor.  Michigan’s violent crime rate is also worse than average.”

It may seem strange, but after reviewing the data, and looking at what they judge as the Top 5 states for retirement – Texas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Idaho and Louisiana – I will stick with my plan to remain here.  In spite of its flaws, Michigan provides me with almost everything I need to live a long and fulfilled retirement.  All I ask is that it understand that I just need a little “southern exposure” early each year.

Since Ron Dzwonkowski at the Free Press and I are always discussing the latest Michigan population trends, I sent over my quick analysis for his information.  He called back immediately and said that he would like to do an editorial for the Sunday, January 1, 2012 edition.  I now quote from that editorial.

“The positive spin from the latest Census Bureau report on state populations is that Michigan has stabilized. We still lost people last year, but the outward flow is down to a drip — not even 1% — and while we may never see 10 million again, we’re still No. 8 among the 50 states.  For a few more years, anyway.

But burrow into the data a little further and it shows a troubling trend. There’s an ever growing share of people like me in Michigan — over age 50, well over in my case — and no matter how important we think we are, there’s no future in us (unless you’re in health care, non-pediatric.)

According to demographer Kurt Metzger, director of Data Driven Detroit, 25% of the state population was over age 50 back in 1990. Twenty years later, it is more than 34% — and nearly 14% of the state is 65 or older. That’s a lot of “institutional knowledge,” sure, but with few exceptions, not a lot of invention, innovation, entrepreneurial energy or eagerness to embrace change. While that’s natural with aging, it also means that Michigan, in short, is growing more of what’s holding us back.

Who cares how many people are here? Who they are is what matters.

Among the 50 states, census data show Michigan ranks 42nd in births per 1,000 residents but 16th in deaths per thousand. So we’re doing better at longevity than reproductivity, and thus turning into a place that’s top heavy with older people.”

Allow me to add a couple more data points.  Michigan’s rank by age group:

Under 18 years – 25th

25 to 34 years – 47th

55 years and over – 16th

 Now, back to the article.

“And compounding the slow birthrate, “we’re just not attracting any young people,” said Metzger.

Well, why would we when the dominant hair color young people see around here is Grecian Formula? So OK, those are the hard, gray numbers. They create some stark choices.  We can’t just let the gray keep growing. We can’t hide it with Grecian Formula. We can decide that maybe we’re too old for serious change, but Michigan, turning 175 this month, cannot afford to be.”

The week that followed brought with it outrage from aging advocates across the region. While I was credited for a thorough analysis, Ron was lambasted for “implying that the older population is the source of our problem.”  Several comments that I came across were of a tone that I wouldn’t even place in my blog.

It was suggested that a forum be convened on the economic and social implications of the aging population, to discuss some of the facts and myths regarding the impact of the graying population.  Several years ago I participated in a similar event in Oakland County that was titled “The Silver Tsunami.”

I welcomed the opportunity to be a part of such a forum, both because I love to present the demographics and because it won’t be long till I join the Medicare Generation.  So here we are:

The Aging Services Consortium of Detroit will present a forum on “The Graying of Our Population” to be held at the Luella Hannan Memorial Foundation, 4750 Woodward, Detroit 48201 on February 8, 2012 from 9:30 to 11:00 a.m. The panel will include Dr. Tom Jankowski of the Wayne State University Institute of Gerontology, myself and Ron Dzwonkowski .

Come and join us.  It should be fun.

A number of rather eloquent editorials have been written in criticism of the vote.  One of my favorites was by Brian Dickerson of the Free Press.  Allow me to include some of his most salient points.

“Daniels (the newly elected Troy Mayor) & Co. invoked a series of spurious arguments to defend their decision, including the claim that they were striking a blow against federal spending. (In fact, the federal money that had been earmarked for the Troy transit center will now be disbursed for similar projects elsewhere, although not necessarily in Michigan.)

But their real motive was transparent: the fear that outsiders currently disinclined to visit Troy may do so if enticed by a modern train station and convenient parking, at an incalculable cost to Troy taxpayers and their way of life.

This paranoid insularity is hardly unique to Troy, of course. It’s epidemic in Michigan, a state whose percentage of native-born residents is second to only Louisiana’s.

Nor is it unique to the relatively affluent suburbs. In fact, the closest parallel to Troy’s Mayor Daniels may be Detroit City Councilwoman JoAnn Watson, whose reflexive suspicion of suburban outsiders mirrors the concern Daniels and her allies express about transit riders from the region beyond Troy’s borders.

To dismiss this sort of thinking as bigotry is almost beside the point; it’s simply bad policy, predicated on a world that no longer exists.

There may have been a time when communities could compete effectively for residents and employers by making themselves less accessible to surrounding municipalities, but that time is a distant memory. The era when the absence of public transit was a boon to property values may never have existed at all.”

When will the Detroit region ever get beyond this parochial us vs. them – whether the them is another race or ethnicity, another social class, another religion, another geographic unit of government?

I know that the most recent transit-related decisions had to hit Dan Gilmartin more than most.  Dan is the head of the Michigan Municipal League and is on a campaign to make Michigan state, regional and community leaders understand what works.  We say we want to be a “place’ where young, educated people want to live and work.  We know the characteristics of successful states, regions and communities – bold leadership, global understanding, valuing diversity, walkability, transit, cultural economic development, and education.

Dan, please don’t let this stop the message!  I know it is not going to stop me.  We must continue to try for all those who are fighting for the cause.

You would think that gerrymandering the 14 remaining U.S. Congressional Districts and diluting Latino representation in both the Michigan House and Senate districts in Detroit (maps are available through Data Driven Detroit by emailing Askkurt@datadrivendetroit.org) would be enough damage to dole out for one election cycle. But NO! Now, because they lost the majority of votes on the 5-member Oakland County Apportionment Commission, the Republicans in the legislature are changing the rules that govern the redistricting process for county commissioners across the state – but really only for Oakland County!  How dare they! They have legislated a reduction in the number of seats for counties over 50,000 population to 21. Then they have taken the responsibility for the redistricting process, in counties of 1 million+ population, from the Apportionment Commission and given it to the legislature. [Wayne County is not affected because of its charter status.] This is the most incredibly shameful display of political chicanery that I have witnessed in a long while – and that is saying a lot.  They want us to believe that the focus of this is a cost saving move and has no tie to politics.  And, surprise, surprise, L. Brooks Patterson parrots the thoughtful cost-saving approach in his declaration of full support. Both the Republican-run House and Senate have approved the legislation.

I started writing this as this bill was heading toward the Governor’s desk.  I was waiting to see if Rick Snyder is truly about moving Michigan forward or just another politically driven “leader.”  Well…he has now signed the bill and shown his true colors.  I am amazed how quickly non-politicians such as Snyder and Bing are so quickly lured to the “dark side.”  Stop trying to convince us otherwise – you are politicians pure and simple and your decisions come down to your party and not the people.