Michigan Births Take Another Hit

The long awaited release of final birth numbers for 2010 show that Michigan experienced another year of decreasing births – a trend that, with a few minor variations, has been in effect for the last 20 years.  The decrease from 2009 to 2010 was 2.2 percent, as births fell from 117,309 to 114,717.  Overall, annual births in Michigan have fallen 25.1 percent since 1990 and 15.7 percent since 2000.  If one were to look at 3-year averages, as is often done to account for year to year variations, the 2007-09 vs. 2008-10 change jumps to 2.9 percent, while the 1990-92 vs. 2008-10 change drops to 20.9 percent.

Figure 1 shows the total births in the State from 1990 to 2010.

 

Figure 1.  Total Births in Michigan by Year, 1990 – 2010

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total births fell in almost all urban counties in the State.  Saginaw experienced the largest year to year loss at 5.4 percent and was followed by Muskegon (-4.9%), Kent (-3.4%), Calhoun (-3.3%), Genesee (-3.0%), Oakland (-2.2%), Macomb (-2.0%), Wayne (-1.8%) and Ingham (-0.4%).  Four metropolitan core counties bucked the trend by experiencing no change or birth increases.  These were Berrien (0.0%), Washtenaw (1.0%), Jackson (1.7%) and Kalamazoo (1.7%).  The later might indeed be a result of the Kalamazoo Promise.  When one looks at 3-year averages, all the counties experienced an actual drop between the 2007-09 and 2008-10 periods.

Figure 2 provides a view of births in the tri-county area over the last 20 years.

 Figure 2.  Total Births in Macomb, Oakland, Out-Wayne and Detroit by Year, 1990 – 2010

While all four areas show a decreasing trend over the period, particularly since the middle of the last decade, the degree of loss differs a great deal.  Comparing 3-year averages for the periods 1990-92 and 2008-10, we find the following:

Macomb County        -8.2%

Oakland County        -19.1%

Out-Wayne County    -16.7%

Detroit City             -50.9%

Macomb County has experienced the smallest decrease, but a decrease nonetheless, in spite of its large overall population increase over the last two decades.  Oakland County experienced almost no growth over the last decade, due to outmigration and a significant drop in births.  Out-Wayne County’s drop has not been as great as Oakland’s, due to a younger population overall, due in great part to immigration, and growth in the western and southern suburbs.  And finally there is Detroit which has seen its birth totals drop by half as many young families left the city and the birth rate decreased.

Birth trends are an important component of population change for any geographic area.  When births are decreasing there is little chance that the overall population will be growing. In addition, school systems cannot afford to maintain their infrastructure in light of decreasing enrollment on the horizon.

We can take some solace in the fact that the 2009-10 decrease was somewhat less than the two prior years.  If recent economic trends continue their positive movement; if the Governor’s efforts to attract immigrants begins to show success; and if our metropolitan regions can begin to develop shared visions that emphasize strong central cities, Michigan will begin to attract the young, educated workforce that will both reinvent Michigan and begin to lay down roots that will result in a birth rebound.

Let the Spirit of Volunteerism Rise in Metro Detroit!

On Wednesday, February 22, I have the distinct pleasure of joining Detroit City Council President Charles Pugh and WDET’s Craig Fahle for “an unprecedented evening on Wayne State’s Campus.”  As the announcement

You can join together with leaders who share your passion and dedication for a healthy, stable Detroit.

The night will be historic. It is the kick off of a one month sprint to unlock 10,000 new volunteer hours in Detroit.

You will meet new people, get new tools and find new ways to make a difference.

But how can you have such a great opportunity without having to endure some data before you start?  Well, that is where yours truly comes in.  I have been asked to be one of the kickoff speakers and fill you with some numbers, some things to think about, and, hopefully, a little more motivation to be a  change agent in Detroit.

While I am not going to give away everything that I plan to cover, I would like to throw out some stats related to Volunteering in the Detroit metropolitan area.  Since everyone loves rankings, I thought I would give you some idea where Detroit ranks among the Top 51 metros (population based) in the country.  This ranking is based on age of the volunteers.

Older Adults (Before 1946)            37th

Baby Boomers (1946-1964)           33rd

Gen X (1964-1982)                      26th

Millenials (1982-2000)                 38th

Young Adult (1984-1996)              33rd

Overall                                       32nd

It is obvious that we, as a region, have a long way to go before we can hit the Top 10 on any category.  It is clear that the factors that tend to lower volunteering:  Foreclosure rate; poverty rate; unemployment rate; and homeownership, all traveled in the wrong direction over the last 5 years.  In addition, the Detroit region ranks quite low in the percentage of college graduates – another indicator tied to volunteerism.

While we may not be able to reverse all the factors overnight, we are beginning to see positive signs.  The important point is that these factors do not doom us to a ranking in the bottom half of the list.  The ability to rise in the rankings is in our hands!  Let us use this event as the beginning of our climb to the TOP!

Coffee Is Indeed Good For You!

I read an article the other day that made me think of the Woody Allen movie Sleeper.  In the movie, Woody has been cryogenically frozen and is thawed out many years later.  Among the many consequences of this time warp is that he discovers scientists have changed their views on the dangers of many products he had been told to stay away from, or use in extreme moderation, in his former life.  The following is a brief excerpt:

Dr. Melik: This morning for breakfast he requested something called “wheat germ, organic honey and tiger’s milk.”
Dr. Aragon: [chuckling] Oh, yes. Those are the charmed substances that some years ago were thought to contain life-preserving properties.
Dr. Melik: You mean there was no deep fat? No steak or cream pies or… hot fudge?
Dr. Aragon: Those were thought to be unhealthy… precisely the opposite of what we now know to be true.
Dr. Melik: Incredible.

Well, the article I refer to has to do with coffee – or as I refer to it “the Elixir of the Gods.”  The first thing I do each morning is get that cup of coffee.  I used to have a coffee pot timed to be ready by 5:30 am and I would not get out of bed, no matter how early I awoke, until I knew that pot was ready.  We have now moved on to a one-cupper machine which means that I have to turn it on, wait for it to warm up, and that wait for the cup to be ready.  This is often an extremely stressful event.  The cups continue to be poured throughout the day – usually stopping by 4:00 or so. People warned me about my coffee “habit” but I held fast.

You can understand my excitement when I read in the Harvard Medical School’s HEALTHbeat newsletter:

“Remember when people (and their doctors) used to worry that coffee would harm their hearts, give them ulcers, and make them overly nervous? In excess, coffee, and more particularly, caffeine, can cause problems. But the fretting about two or three cups a day, or even more, is fading as study results suggestive of health benefits from coffee keep on coming in. Coffee drinking is associated with a lower risk of depression among women, a lower risk of lethal prostate cancer among men, and a lower risk of stroke among men and women. Earlier research also shows possible (it’s not a done deal) protective effects against everything from Parkinson’s disease to diabetes to some types of cancer.

Coffee contains literally a thousand different substances, and some of the lesser lights are thought to be responsible for healthful effects in other parts of the body. Some studies show caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee as having the same effect, which suggests that something else in coffee is involved.

Caffeine probably has multiple targets in the brain, but the main one seems to be adenosine receptors. Adenosine is a brain chemical that dampens brain activity. By hogging adenosine’s receptors, caffeine sets off a chain of events that affects the activity of dopamine, another important brain chemical, and the areas of the brain involved in arousal, pleasure, and thinking. Outside the brain, caffeine can be a performance enhancer, boosting the strength of muscle contraction and offsetting some of the physiological and psychological effects of physical exertion.”

Statistics show that per capita consumption of coffee has decreased from 26.7 gallons in 1980 to 23.3 gallons in 2009 (latest available), even while coffee shops continue to proliferate.

I admit that I have removed the negative effects mentioned in the article so that my wife and D3 staff stop giving me a hard time.  Let’s stick with the brain arousal and muscle strengthening.  I need all the help I can get.

A Message I Just Had to Repeat!

I realize that a vast majority of the public no longer gets the Sunday paper – either delivered, from the store or from a newspaper box.  I also realize that many pull their news from the web and, while they are able to consume a vast variety of headlines and human interest stories, they tend to miss many of the “less important” pieces.

I am afraid that one of those “missed opportunities” occurred today when the Freep ran an article on 88-year old Naomi Long Madgett who was honored last month by the Kresge Foundation with this year’s Eminent Artist Award, making her the first woman to receive metro Detroit’s most prestigious and lucrative award for an individual artist. It comes with a $50,000 prize.

While never being a great fan of poetry, I am now a big fan of Ms. Madgett and plan to get out there and look for her in my library. I might even go against my nature of sticking with libraries and make a bookstore purchase.

It was her poem, Midway, that I wanted to put out there for you.

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I’ve come this far to freedom and I won’t turn back

I’m climbing to the highway from my old dirt track

I’m coming and I’m going

And I’m stretching and I’m growing

And I’ll reap what I’ve been sowing

or my skin’s not black

I’ve prayed and slaved and waited

and I’ve sung my song

You’ve bled me and you’ve starved me

but I’ve still grown strong

You’ve lashed me and you’ve treed me

And you’ve everything but freed me

But in time you’ll know you need me and it won’t be long.

I’ve seen the daylight breaking high above the bough

I’ve found my destination and I’ve made my vow;

so whether you abhor me

Or deride me or ignore me

Mighty mountains loom before me

and I won’t stop now.

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While an extremely personal reflection, this is a message that truly resonates with me and that I plan to read over and over.  Though I was born a white male in a middle class household and have had all the opportunities that status conferred on me, I have tried to live my life with an understanding of the plight of those not so fortunate.  As we all work to lift up Detroit and those on the margins throughout our city, region and state, let us all take what we can from this amazing woman’s message.

Why Shouldn’t I Retire in Michigan?

Making it through another birthday last Sunday made my thoughts go once again to the “Big R” – Retirement. While I can’t see myself giving up the “data business” entirely, nor divorcing myself from Data Driven Detroit, I do find the thought of a leisurely coffee (or two or three), comfortable clothes and some reading material an attractive alternative to a quick coffee (or two or three), a shower, a suit and a drive to the office.  I also see Michigan as my retirement base of operations (I have drunk the cool aid), with a six week stay during January – February someplace warm.

While developing the plan I came across a rather disturbing, though not surprising, finding in a study commissioned by the AARP, originally standing for the American Association of Retired People, but just AARP now – probably because membership invitations seem to get sent out to those younger and younger each year.  The move to letters, with no words attached, puts AARP in league with KFC.

I digress.  The survey was done by MoneyRates.com, a site that provides rates galore – savings accounts, credit cards, mortgages, and much more.  While the AARP recognizes that many highly personal factors come into play when it’s time to pick the perfect place to retire, they wanted to “add some objectivity to what’s otherwise a very individualized life choice.”  Therefore they had  the finance website looked at a number of factors, including climate, crime rate, life expectancy and economic conditions such as cost of living, job opportunities and taxes, to come up with their state rankings.  The interesting thing is that MoneyRates.com weighted each factor according to a poll that asked readers to rate its importance in the context of retirement. Based on their responses, the following weights were applied – economics (47 percent), climate (33 percent), life expectancy (12 percent) and crime (8 percent).

Well, with those measures as the base, it is not difficult to predict where Michigan might fall in the rankings.  Last you say?  Well…not quite.  We came in second last to Maine!  Let me give you the Bottom 10 in the list, and provide their account of Michigan.  After Maine and Michigan we have:

Massachusetts

Connecticut

Alaska

Maryland

Rhode Island

Washington

New York

Wisconsin

Interesting that there isn’t a great deal of winter warmth here, nor is any on this list a right-to-work state.

As for the comments on Michigan:  ” Michigan duplicated its ranking from last year as the second-worst state for retirement. Because it was similarly below average in all four categories, the reader weightings did not make much of a difference. Unemployment is high, and tax burdens are also above average. Michigan rated well below median for its climate. At 76.3 years, this was another below-average factor.  Michigan’s violent crime rate is also worse than average.”

It may seem strange, but after reviewing the data, and looking at what they judge as the Top 5 states for retirement – Texas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Idaho and Louisiana – I will stick with my plan to remain here.  In spite of its flaws, Michigan provides me with almost everything I need to live a long and fulfilled retirement.  All I ask is that it understand that I just need a little “southern exposure” early each year.