When Demographic Analysis Causes Concern

In late December, the Census Bureau released its latest population estimates for the nation and states.  Since Michigan was the only state to lose population over the last decade, but appeared to be coming out of the recession on the back of a revived auto industry, I anticipated continued loss but hoped for a slight gain.  While Michigan’s July 2011 population was down from that of 2010, it was less than 1,000 residents – 956 to be exact – and was actually exceeded by Rhode Island.  This represented a great improvement over the average loss of almost 30,000 residents per year since 2004.

Since Ron Dzwonkowski at the Free Press and I are always discussing the latest Michigan population trends, I sent over my quick analysis for his information.  He called back immediately and said that he would like to do an editorial for the Sunday, January 1, 2012 edition.  I now quote from that editorial.

“The positive spin from the latest Census Bureau report on state populations is that Michigan has stabilized. We still lost people last year, but the outward flow is down to a drip — not even 1% — and while we may never see 10 million again, we’re still No. 8 among the 50 states.  For a few more years, anyway.

But burrow into the data a little further and it shows a troubling trend. There’s an ever growing share of people like me in Michigan — over age 50, well over in my case — and no matter how important we think we are, there’s no future in us (unless you’re in health care, non-pediatric.)

According to demographer Kurt Metzger, director of Data Driven Detroit, 25% of the state population was over age 50 back in 1990. Twenty years later, it is more than 34% — and nearly 14% of the state is 65 or older. That’s a lot of “institutional knowledge,” sure, but with few exceptions, not a lot of invention, innovation, entrepreneurial energy or eagerness to embrace change. While that’s natural with aging, it also means that Michigan, in short, is growing more of what’s holding us back.

Who cares how many people are here? Who they are is what matters.

Among the 50 states, census data show Michigan ranks 42nd in births per 1,000 residents but 16th in deaths per thousand. So we’re doing better at longevity than reproductivity, and thus turning into a place that’s top heavy with older people.”

Allow me to add a couple more data points.  Michigan’s rank by age group:

Under 18 years – 25th

25 to 34 years – 47th

55 years and over – 16th

 Now, back to the article.

“And compounding the slow birthrate, “we’re just not attracting any young people,” said Metzger.

Well, why would we when the dominant hair color young people see around here is Grecian Formula? So OK, those are the hard, gray numbers. They create some stark choices.  We can’t just let the gray keep growing. We can’t hide it with Grecian Formula. We can decide that maybe we’re too old for serious change, but Michigan, turning 175 this month, cannot afford to be.”

The week that followed brought with it outrage from aging advocates across the region. While I was credited for a thorough analysis, Ron was lambasted for “implying that the older population is the source of our problem.”  Several comments that I came across were of a tone that I wouldn’t even place in my blog.

It was suggested that a forum be convened on the economic and social implications of the aging population, to discuss some of the facts and myths regarding the impact of the graying population.  Several years ago I participated in a similar event in Oakland County that was titled “The Silver Tsunami.”

I welcomed the opportunity to be a part of such a forum, both because I love to present the demographics and because it won’t be long till I join the Medicare Generation.  So here we are:

The Aging Services Consortium of Detroit will present a forum on “The Graying of Our Population” to be held at the Luella Hannan Memorial Foundation, 4750 Woodward, Detroit 48201 on February 8, 2012 from 9:30 to 11:00 a.m. The panel will include Dr. Tom Jankowski of the Wayne State University Institute of Gerontology, myself and Ron Dzwonkowski .

Come and join us.  It should be fun.

Another Nail in the Regional Transit Coffin

Just as I was making a partial recovery from the news of the Light Rail project cancellation, and fighting myself not to send a diatribe to the newspapers, I was greeted with the not wholly unexpected vote by the Troy City Council not to accept the Federal government’s offer of $8.5 million for the intermodal station at 15 Mile Rd. and Coolidge.  I have to believe that Troy residents, who, as a whole, are quite diverse, well-educated and rather well off by regional income standards, are in agreement that an important component of a critically needed regional transit system is not want they want to support.  After all they voted in 3 of the 4 no votes this past November.  You must remember that they also were willing to stop supporting one of the best public libraries in the region – barely passing a supporting millage after a previous ‘no’ vote.

A number of rather eloquent editorials have been written in criticism of the vote.  One of my favorites was by Brian Dickerson of the Free Press.  Allow me to include some of his most salient points.

“Daniels (the newly elected Troy Mayor) & Co. invoked a series of spurious arguments to defend their decision, including the claim that they were striking a blow against federal spending. (In fact, the federal money that had been earmarked for the Troy transit center will now be disbursed for similar projects elsewhere, although not necessarily in Michigan.)

But their real motive was transparent: the fear that outsiders currently disinclined to visit Troy may do so if enticed by a modern train station and convenient parking, at an incalculable cost to Troy taxpayers and their way of life.

This paranoid insularity is hardly unique to Troy, of course. It’s epidemic in Michigan, a state whose percentage of native-born residents is second to only Louisiana’s.

Nor is it unique to the relatively affluent suburbs. In fact, the closest parallel to Troy’s Mayor Daniels may be Detroit City Councilwoman JoAnn Watson, whose reflexive suspicion of suburban outsiders mirrors the concern Daniels and her allies express about transit riders from the region beyond Troy’s borders.

To dismiss this sort of thinking as bigotry is almost beside the point; it’s simply bad policy, predicated on a world that no longer exists.

There may have been a time when communities could compete effectively for residents and employers by making themselves less accessible to surrounding municipalities, but that time is a distant memory. The era when the absence of public transit was a boon to property values may never have existed at all.”

When will the Detroit region ever get beyond this parochial us vs. them – whether the them is another race or ethnicity, another social class, another religion, another geographic unit of government?

I know that the most recent transit-related decisions had to hit Dan Gilmartin more than most.  Dan is the head of the Michigan Municipal League and is on a campaign to make Michigan state, regional and community leaders understand what works.  We say we want to be a “place’ where young, educated people want to live and work.  We know the characteristics of successful states, regions and communities – bold leadership, global understanding, valuing diversity, walkability, transit, cultural economic development, and education.

Dan, please don’t let this stop the message!  I know it is not going to stop me.  We must continue to try for all those who are fighting for the cause.

 

Michigan Will Never Prosper When Politics Drives Every Decision!

You would think that gerrymandering the 14 remaining U.S. Congressional Districts and diluting Latino representation in both the Michigan House and Senate districts in Detroit (maps are available through Data Driven Detroit by emailing Askkurt@datadrivendetroit.org) would be enough damage to dole out for one election cycle. But NO! Now, because they lost the majority of votes on the 5-member Oakland County Apportionment Commission, the Republicans in the legislature are changing the rules that govern the redistricting process for county commissioners across the state – but really only for Oakland County!  How dare they! They have legislated a reduction in the number of seats for counties over 50,000 population to 21. Then they have taken the responsibility for the redistricting process, in counties of 1 million+ population, from the Apportionment Commission and given it to the legislature. [Wayne County is not affected because of its charter status.] This is the most incredibly shameful display of political chicanery that I have witnessed in a long while – and that is saying a lot.  They want us to believe that the focus of this is a cost saving move and has no tie to politics.  And, surprise, surprise, L. Brooks Patterson parrots the thoughtful cost-saving approach in his declaration of full support. Both the Republican-run House and Senate have approved the legislation.

I started writing this as this bill was heading toward the Governor’s desk.  I was waiting to see if Rick Snyder is truly about moving Michigan forward or just another politically driven “leader.”  Well…he has now signed the bill and shown his true colors.  I am amazed how quickly non-politicians such as Snyder and Bing are so quickly lured to the “dark side.”  Stop trying to convince us otherwise – you are politicians pure and simple and your decisions come down to your party and not the people.

Detroit Children and Families Lose Once Again

As Steve Neavling reported on September 9, “The City of Detroit chose not to apply for a $7.5-million grant that would have helped serve 1,500 low-income children through the education program Head Start, council members were told Thursday. Officials at the Department of Human Services, which is under an FBI investigation for misspending, said the city lacked sufficient licensed locations to handle an additional 1,500 children.

“We have had problems finding licensed facilities,” Head Start manager Virginia Burns-Saleem told the council. “We didn’t go after the grant because Detroit Public Schools said it was not going to provide space.”

It is unconscionable that Detroit officials would not do everything in their power to find facilities, either in Detroit, or working with partners in Wayne, Oakland or Macomb to serve their children.  Head Start provides a tremendous pre-school experience that has been shown to provide supports for children from impoverished families – supports that increase kindergarten readiness and lead to educational success.

Head Start is a federally funded program designed for children in low-income families to help prepare them for school. Children are eligible for Head Start if their families’ incomes are below the poverty line, or if they are eligible for public assistance.  Children in foster care, regardless of income, are also eligible. In addition to educational services, Head Start provides health and social services, and encourages parental involvement in all aspects of the program.  One rigorous national evaluation, the Head Start Impact Study, found gains for Head Start children in pre-reading, pre-writing, vocabulary and literacy skills.  Children assigned to participate in Head Start also had fewer behavior problems, better overall physical health, less hyperactivity, and more access to dental care than did children with comparable backgrounds who did not participate.  More positive effects were found for children who entered the program as three-year-olds than for those entering as four-year-olds.  Another study found that four-year-olds participating in Head Start did better in receptive language and phonemic awareness than four-year-olds of similar backgrounds who were wait-listed for the Head Start program.  Other studies find that children who attended Head Start are more likely to stay in school and have lower rates of grade retention in early elementary school.  Head Start participants are also more likely to be fully immunized and to have better access to health care.

Head Start programs also have benefits for the parents of the children attending.  In comparison to a group of families with similar backgrounds, parents of children attending such programs are more likely to report good health and safety practices than are parents of children not attending. First-year findings from the Head Start Impact Study also found that parents of children attending Head Start were more likely to read to their children frequently, less likely to use physical punishment, and more likely to engage in educational activities with their children.

The latest numbers for Detroit show that, as of 2009, 52 percent of Detroit children under 5 years of age – a total of 35,065 – met the poverty criteria.  One can add another 4,840 5-year olds (58 percent of their total).  Coming at it from the family side, 48 percent of Detroit families with children 5 and under are in poverty – 21,436 in total.

The work of Geoffrey Canada and the Harlem Childrens’ Zone has documented the language deficiency that accompanies children from poor families and poor neighborhoods.  We cannot expect the Detroit Public School system to make up for these deficiencies when teachers must face classrooms numbering 25 – 35 children.  We fail our children when adults don’t do everything they can to make sure they have the necessary tools for success.

Detroit’s decision is setting a large numbers of its children up for failure.  When will we stop mouthing the words “our children are our future” and start acting the words.  When will we Walk the Walk instead of always Talking the Talk?

Southeast Oakland County Gets It -Why Can’t Michigan???

In spite of what I would term a clearly anti-gay posture on the part of politicians in Michigan, the 2010 U.S. Census shows that 21,782 same-sex couples call Michigan home, according to a report released by the Williams Institute.  However, this is likely just a sliver of the state’s LGBT population, which is a difficult community to measure, due to concerns when answering the Census questionnaire and the fact that there is no way to count those living alone or not in a “partnership” situation.

In June, Republicans on the Oversight, Reform and Ethics Committee voted to bar employers from offering benefits to anyone not married or related to an employee. Although the rules don’t say “gay” anywhere in them, it’s clear who they target, according to Equality Michigan.  “While these benefits are often used by both straight and gay couples, anti-gay lawmakers are specifically trying to deny gay couples the ability to care for their families,” Emily Dievendorf, director of policy for the group, said in a statement.  Republicans also voted to make it illegal for any union to negotiate on benefits for unmarried couples.

Michigan already banned gay marriage in its constitution, defining marriage as “the union of one man and one woman.” The state’s law claims “a special interest in encouraging, supporting, and protecting that unique relationship in order to promote, among other goals, the stability and welfare of society and its children.”  What a welcoming message to send!

The illustration accompanying this blog shows dots for the Top 10 same-sex couple hot spots in the country over the last 10 years.  If you look closely you will see a dot show up in Michigan in 2010.  That dot belongs to Pleasant Ridge, which ranks 7th in the country based on density of same-sex households.  Also ranking high on the national list was Ferndale, while Huntington Woods, Ypsilanti and Royal Oak rounded out Michigan’s Top 5.  Clearly, in spite of state policies, Southeast Oakland County represents a welcoming atmosphere.

Regardless of the difficulties in counting all same-sex couples, Gary Gates, who has researched the LGBT community for years,  said the census shows a 50 percent increase in same-sex couples self-reporting nationwide, which is a huge jump that he did not anticipate.  Michigan’s rate of increase was 42 percent.  The Williams Institute data is not only adjusted to accommodate the 15 percent of couples who would not report, but also to accommodate the heterosexual couples who accidentally report as same-sex couples. This means that the overall increase in reported same-sex couples is quite remarkable.

The census does not ask individuals about their sexual orientation, but Equality Michigan, a statewide advocacy group, estimates at least 287,000 gay and transgender adults live in Michigan. The organization applauded the news of the increase in same-sex couples and reminded Michiganders that LGBT citizens still lack basic protections in employment and housing.

Michigan politicians speak to the need to be a state that attracts and retains young, educated individuals.  But young, educated individuals repeatedly tell researchers that they are looking for places that value and promote diversity – diversity of race and ethnicity; diversity of housing options; diversity of transportation options; diversity of gender; diversity of opinions.  When will we get that message!

I wanted to finish this blog with a Letter to the Editor that I sent to the Free Press, commenting on a column that followed the approval of gay marriage in New York state.

_____________________

I was thrilled when New York approved Gay Marriage – one more state showing some sense – and was pleased to hear that it was Andrew Cuomo who fought the good fight.  Nancy Andrew’s opinion column in Sunday’s paper added the personal touch that showed why the ruling was so important.  As she said…  “We could have held commitment ceremonies anywhere or gotten married in other states or countries, but it’s not the same. You go home to be married. You go home to unite your families and friends.”

As good as the column made me feel, it was her last sentence that left me with a hollow feeling.  “But when we come back to Michigan where we live, we’ll still be single.”  My daughter is getting married in Detroit in August.  She is getting married because she has chosen a man to spend her life with.  There will be a number of couples attending her ceremony who do not have that option.  They are no less in love or committed to each other than my wife and I, or my daughter and her fiancee.  Yet, because they are from Michigan they can only celebrate the marriage of others.

Who in Lansing will champion the cause? Where is our Andrew Cuomo?

Marriage Leads to A Longer Life! Come Join Me All You Singles!

There is a very old joke that goes something like this…”Married men live longer than single men…or maybe it just feels that way.”  Of course, being happily married, still my first, for quite a number of years, I can attest to the opposite – I feel great!

Now a new review of studies questions what singlehood brings to the table.  It says that, while singles may tout the benefits of their lifestyle, longevity is probably not one of them.

Researchers from the University of Louisville in Kentucky analyzed 90 past studies on the subject, and found that men who stay single may die eight to 17 years before married men, while women who stay single may die seven to 15 years before married women. Researchers said this could be attributed to the fact that there is more social support and public assistance for married couples. For example, a recent study showed that married men manage to get to a hospital for a heart attack sooner than single men.  Obviously there is someone complaining in the background that “you never want to go to the doctor!  You are going this time Mister!”

According to the new review in the American Journal of Epidemiology, single men have a 32 percent higher risk of death over their lifetimes compared with married men, while single women have a 23 percent higher risk of death over their lifetimes than married women.

A number of caveats and questions have been raised about the findings.

1. The researchers looked at studies conducted on the subject that were published over the last 60 years.
2. The analysis doesn’t take into account the impact of a bad marriage on longevity, certainly a negative contributor to health.
3. The review of studies also only defined married people as people who remained married throughout their lives, not divorced or widowed people who were at once married but then became single. [However, a study of 67,000 Americans from 2006 showed that single people still tend to die sooner than widowed, divorced and separated people, in addition to married people.]

Since readers expect my blogs to contain some local data in the mix, allow me to provide some marital statistics.  These data represent residents of the 6-county (Lapeer, Livingston, Macomb, Oakland, St. Clair and Wayne) Detroit metropolitan area.  I decided to also use an age range of 25-64 years of age for my analysis.  I figured that those under 25 years are still looking and those who have made it to 65 years and beyond have done a good bit of living either married or single.

Looking at the numbers (see Table 1), we can see that, while the share of divorced residents went up slightly between 2000 and 2009, the real change occurred in the shift between the ‘now married’ and ‘single, never married’ categories.

 Table 1.  Marital Status of Persons 25 – 64 Years of Age in Metropolitan Detroit

The share of single, never married males showed a significant increase, growing beyond 1 of every 4 in 2009, while their married counterparts decreased toward the 50 percent mark.

While a smaller share of women are single, never married (though they are much more likely to be single due to divorce or widowhood), that share still grew at a rate similar to that of males and now number 1 of every 4.  Combined with the other ‘single’ categories, the share of married females 25 to 64 years of age equals that for males.

The trend is clear – singlehood is growing in metro Detroit.  Will this lead to a decrease in years of life expectancy?  Stay tuned.  D3 will be there to track it.

Just remember:  Whether single or married, experts still say that life expectancy can be extended through exercise, staying positive, eating more fiber and having a friendly workplace.

Metro Detroit Real Estate – Great Deals In A Great Area!

While the local housing market is a bargain for those looking to get in, the drop in value has many current owners “singing the blues.”

The signs are clear.  Michigan ranks high among states in the percentage of home owners “under water” with their mortgages and continues to rank in the top 10 states for foreclosures.  2010 Census figures showed the share of metro Detroiters who own their residence decreased in every county, with a resultant increase in renters.  Increased renters did not result from a plethora of new apartment complexes, but rather from single-family homeowners who  moved but could not afford to sell their homes at such large losses and turned to renting it out instead.

The Standard & Poor’s Case–Shiller Home Price Indices are constant-quality house price indices for the United States, that are calculated from data on repeat sales of single-family homes. There are multiple Case–Shiller home price indices: A national home price index, a 20-city composite index, a 10-city composite index, and twenty individual metro area indices (with metro-Detroit being one of the 20). The index is published monthly and uses a method that is able to adjust for the quality of the homes sold.  The composite, city and metro indices were normalized to have a value of 100 in January 2000.

The following chart tracks the annual index average from January 2000 through May 2011.

Table 1.  Home Price Index for Metro Detroit, 2000 – 2011

One can see that housing values in 2005 had increased by 25 percent over their 2000 starting value.  However, the bubble burst in 2005 and the values began to plummet.  As we look at the latest index report for May 2011, we find that metro Detroit housing values stand at their lowest level since September 1993, just 63 percent of where they were on January 2000 and just half of the value at their peak in February 2006.  Among the 20 metropolitan areas tracked, only Cleveland and Las Vegas have lost value since 2000, with Cleveland at 99 percent and Las Vegas at 97 percent (Detroit is at 64 percent).

The headlines read, “Troubled home market creates generation of renters.”  My headline reads, “The metro Detroit housing market is open for business.”  Though many current owners cannot afford to sell, their still is a glut of good housing stock vacant and on the market.  All signs point to a market bottom.  It is time to get in while the getting is good.

Detroit is a bargain just waiting for those of you who recognize a good deal and a great place to live!

Elk Grove Sets An Example for All Our Communities to Follow. How About Our Own Pledge to Diversity?

Today, August 1, the city of Elk Grove, California launches a diversity campaign that recognizes Elk Grove’s demographics and offers an online pledge.

The campaign comes on the heels of the U.S. Census Bureau reporting that 70,478 of Elk Grove’s 153,015 residents are white, meaning nonwhites now outnumber whites for the first time in Elk Grove community history.

“The census data showed us the city has a very diverse population,” said city spokesperson Christine Brainerd, who is spearheading the campaign.

The online pledge that residents, and anyone else who recognizes the importance of diversity, can take states the following:

“I realize no one in Elk Grove is exactly like me and that’s an amazing thing.

“I respect my neighbors for the things we have in common and for our differences.

“I resolve that we all need to get along to make our community the best it can be.

“I pledge: peace, love, friendship, unity, acceptance, tolerance, and respect for Elk Grove.”

People can input their names which will be included in the matting of a framed poster used in the campaign. That framed poster will become another piece of public art. In addition, persons who take the online pledge can also upload a picture that will be routed into a diversity face jumble that shows a different picture every time the web page is refreshed.

When I read about this campaign I was inspired to share it with the metropolitan Detroit community.  The last two decades have brought incredible changes to the region and all the communities within.

The decade of the 1990s was one of growth through unprecedented immigration streams – from Asia, the Middle East, Mexico and South America and Eastern Europe.  The most recent decade was marked by decreasing immigration but unprecedented movement of the African American community from the city of Detroit to the suburbs.  the war in Iraq brought large numbers of Chaldean refugees to our region, while the Arab, Asian and Latino communities continued to grow.

While the majority of our communities may not reach the 50+ percent mark for persons of color that was found in Elk Grove, each can look around and see the wonderful mix of diversity that was not there a decade or so ago.  Remember that our diversity is much more than the Federal government measures.  In addition to African American, Asian, Native American and Latinos, we must celebrate those of us who broaden our diversity but usually come out White in the Census: our Arab brothers and sisters, from Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, etc., our large Chaldean community, Eastern Europeans from Romania, Russia, Albania, and many, many more.

While every community in Southeast Michigan could mirror Elk Grove, perhaps a better way of recognizing the strength of our region and the need for Regional Unity is to initiate a “Southeast Michigan Diversity Pledge.”  I am ready…how about you?

However You Feel About Brussel Sprouts, Make Sure You Hype Them for Your Kids!

While this may not be your typical data column, it does feature a Top 10 list and it is certainly related to the declining health status and increasing obesity of our children.

Men’s Fitness Magazine released a new report this week which ranks the foods adults hate the most, stating that  “most people develop their food phobias during childhood but can provide essential nutrients for adult bodies.”  (the sentence reads a little choppy but it is a direct quote)

Recent articles about food desserts, Whole Foods coming to Midtown, and findings that access to fresh fruit and vegetables does not necessarily translate into good health (a topic for a future blog), all led me to think this list deserved a blog.  I have seen these phobias in myself and in my children, thus driving home the importance of parents introducing their children to a wide variety of healthy eating alternatives.  While President Reagan called ketchup a vegetable,  we need to teach children that their bodies require more than french fries with lots of ketchup to be healthy.

Here are the 10 foods adults hate most.

1. Brussel Sprouts

2. Broccoli

3. Fish

4. Turnips

5. Beets

6. Liver

7. Spinach

8. Avocado

9. Cottage Cheese

10. Eggplant

I must say that I totally understand where this list is coming from and, with the exception of fish, spent my childhood trying to avoid each and every one.  I have worked hard in my adult life to try to “get to know” each but have decided a couple (I have made great strides) will just have to reside on plates other than my own.

It May Come From Troy, But Let’s Support It In Detroit!

Beginning tomorrow, Thursday the 28th, Somerset CityLoft, inside Merchants Row at 1441 Woodward in Detroit, between Campus Martius and Grand Circus Park, will open with mini versions of more than 30 stores from the Somerset Collection in Troy.  It will be open the last Thursday, Friday and Saturday of the month through at least September. In addition to shopping, the loft will also feature food and entertainment.  Organizers say they want it to have a party vibe.   Quoting from a recent Detroit Free Press article, “With its dark purple walls, rustic chandeliers, marble tile and fitting rooms, CityLoft represents hope and promise in a downtown that is becoming more lively as companies transfer workers downtown.”

I am writing this blog because I want to encourage all residents and workers in the Downtown, and nearby neighborhoods, to come out and support this effort.  It is certainly not because of a love for Somerset – nor a desire to denigrate businesses that have already discovered the importance of locating in the city.  Rather, it comes from my desire to show that retail in downtown will be supported!  I remember former Mayor Archer saying that he finally realized, after attending a number of International Shopping Center conferences, that retail attraction can only come with employment and residential density downtown.  Well – we appear to be on the cusp of that – with the recent moves of companies downtown, the tremendous development in Midtown, and the wonderful live local campaigns that have come under the umbrella of Midtown Inc. and Sue Mosey.

I need to take a moment to applaud those who have come first and are the vanguard of business – the salon pictured above that is at Merchant’s Row; Avalon Bakery; Bureau of urban Living; City Bird; Canine-to-Five; and many more.  Let us build upon that throughout our city.  While shopping is not one of my favorite pastimes, I will buy something this weekend and encourage my staff to do so as well.

As I was quoted in that same Free Press article, “A true downtown is defined by high concentrations of employment, a strong element of residential, restaurants, services and a reasonable mix of retail. To be a major city you need more than just a lot of residents, you need a downtown.”  Many of us truly believe  Detroit is a major city – we just need to fill in a few gaps.